The scale of economic uncertainty at present is perhaps greater than at any time in our economic history.
In response this report presents a comprehensive set of epidemiological and economic scenarios, in order to help readers understand the economic consequences of the Covid-19 threat to lives and livelihoods.
Economic scenarios are back in vogue. There’s a need to understand the epidemiology and the associated economic consequences, accross a whole rnage of possible outcomes. This UK report sets out 5 economic scenarios (Super V, V, U, W and L) around different epidemiologcial outcomes, ranging from afast lifting of containment measures to a second and third wave to the pandemic over Autumn-Winter of 2020-21.
The scenarios show that, in the second half of the year, the economy could bounce back and regain all the lost output of the first half. Alternatively, if there is a second wave to the pandemic – over the Autumn-Winter period – the economy could implode and not regain it’s pre-pandemic output level until 2025-30.
The range of possibilities is that wide, becuase the epidemiological uncertainty is so great. Download the full report here: Coronanomics – Scenarios for the UK Economy in 2020-21